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Beyond the Bale : June 2019
58 MARKET INTELLIGENCE The chart opposite provides a snapshot of how well the AWEX monthly Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) and a range of microns have performed for the past three months (February 2019 – April 2019) in Australian dollar terms compared with the previous five years February 2014 to January 2019 (circles) and the decade previous to that, February 2014 – January 2014 (squares). For the past three months, the monthly EMI averaged at $19.68, tracking at the 96th percentile against the previous five-year monthly EMI. This means that in the previous five years the monthly EMI has recorded a lower price than the current $19.68 (February 2019 – April 2019) for 96% of the time. While the EMI is tracking at the 96th percentile over the previous five years, it is at the 100th percentile when compared to the decade February 2004 – January 2014. This means the current EMI of $19.68 (February 2019 – April 2019) is higher now than it was for all that decade. The finer, mid and all but the most broad microns have performed well recently. For the past three months, 18 micron averaged at a monthly value of $24.32 (92nd percentile for the previous five years and 100th percentile for the decade before that), 21 micron averaged at $22.82 (99th percentile for the previous five years and 100th percentile for the decade before that), and 28 micron averaged at $11.68 (100th percentile for both the previous five year and the decade before that). However, the recent good performance of Merino Cardings (MC) has slipped somewhat. For the past three months, Merino Cardings averaged at $11.48, operating at the 58th percentile for the previous five years but still at the 100th percentile for the decade before that. AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI COMPARISON EMI’S STRONG PERFORMANCE CONTINUES AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI FOR FEBRUARY 2019 – APRIL 2019 COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS 5 YEARS FEBRUARY 2014 – JANUARY 2019 THE DECADE FEBRUARY 2004 – JANUARY 2014 EMI $19.68 17um $25.03 18um $24.32 19um $23.27 20um $22.95 21um $22.82 22um $22.63 23um $20.32 24um $16.59 25um $15.56 26um $14.27 28um $11.68 30um $8.96 32um $5.30 MC $11.48 0%102030405060708090100 47 92 96 96 96 97 100 89 86 98 99 99 99 98 58 93 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 MARKET INTELLIGENCE: FREE VIA SMS In an initiative launched in 2017, AWI is sending wool prices and market intelligence direct to about 5,000 woolgrowers’ mobile phones. The woolgrowers receive the latest movements in the EMI in a simple text message (see left image), including a link to a full price report that provides more detail about price movements (see right image). If you would like to subscribe to the free SMS service, visit www.wool.com/sms where you will be asked to input your name and the mobile phone number to receive the SMS. You can unsubscribe from the service at any time by replying to the AWI SMS message. MORE INFORMATION www.wool.com/sms