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Beyond the Bale : March 2019
58 MARKET INTELLIGENCE The chart opposite provides a snapshot of how well the AWEX monthly Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) and a range of microns have performed for the past three months (November 2018 – January 2019) in Australian dollar terms compared with the previous five years November 2013 to October 2018 (circles) and the decade previous to that, November 2003 – October 2013 (squares). For the past three months, the monthly EMI averaged at $18.69, tracking at the 95th percentile against the previous five-year monthly EMI. This means that in the previous five years the monthly EMI has recorded a lower price than the current $18.69 (November 2018 – January 2019) for 95% of the time. While the EMI is tracking at the 95th percentile over the previous five years, it is at the 100th percentile when compared to the decade November 2003 – October 2013. This means the current EMI of $18.69 (November 2018 – January 2019) is higher now than it was for all that decade. The mid and finer microns have continued to perform well recently. However, the performance of Merino Cardings (MC) and broader microns has slipped slightly. For the past three months Merino Cardings averaged at $11.49, operating at the 61st percentile for the previous five years and the 100th percentile for the previous decade. For the same recent three-month period, 18 micron averaged at a monthly value of $23.71 (92nd percentile for the previous five years and 100th percentile for the previous decade), 21 micron averaged at $21.59 (98th percentile for the previous five years and 100th percentile for the previous decade), and 28 micron averaged at $8.72 (80th percentile and 100th percentile respectively). AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI COMPARISON EMI’S STRONG PERFORMANCE CONTINUES AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI FOR NOVEMBER 2018 – JANUARY 2019 COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS 5 YEARS NOVEMBER 2013 – OCTOBER 2018 THE DECADE NOVEMBER 2003 – OCTOBER 2013 EMI $18.69 17um $24.96 18um $23.71 19um $22.31 20um $21.79 21um $21.59 22um $22.10 23um $19.63 24um $16.07 25um $14.50 26um $12.45 28um $8.72 30um $ 7.11 32um $4.66 MC $11.49 0%102030405060708090100 24 92 95 95 80 86 68 92 87 88 99 99 98 98 61 77 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 MARKET INTELLIGENCE: FREE VIA SMS In an initiative launched in 2017, AWI is sending wool prices and market intelligence direct to about 5,000 woolgrowers’ mobile phones. The woolgrowers receive the latest movements in the EMI in a simple text message (see left image), including a link to a full price report that provides more detail about price movements (see right image). If you would like to subscribe to the free SMS service, visit www.wool.com/sms where you will be asked to input your name and the mobile phone number to receive the SMS. You can unsubscribe from the service at any time by replying to the AWI SMS message. MORE INFORMATION www.wool.com/sms
In the Shops - March 2019