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Beyond the Bale : December 2017
AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI COMPARISON EXCEPTIONAL PERFORMANCE FOR FINER AND MID MICRONS EMI’S STELLAR RUN CONTINUES The chart opposite provides a snapshot of how well the AWEX monthly Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) and a range of microns have performed for the past three months (August 2017 – October 2017) in Australian dollar terms compared with the previous five years August 2012 to July 2017 (circles) and the decade previous to that, August 2002 – July 2012 (squares). For the past three months, the monthly EMI averaged at $15.57, tracking at the 99th percentile against the previous five-year monthly EMI. The percentile value (99th) indicates that the five-year monthly EMI recorded a price lower than $15.57 for 99% of that time. Or to put it another way, in the previous five years the monthly EMI has recorded a price higher than the current $15.57 (August 2017 – October 2017) for only 1% of the time. While the EMI is tracking at the 99th percentile over the previous five years, it is at the 100th percentile when compared to the decade August 2002 – July 2012. This means the current EMI of $15.57 (August 2017 – October 2017) is higher now than it was for all that decade. The mid and finer microns and Merino Cardings (MC) have continued to perform particularly well recently. For the past three months Merino Cardings averaged at $11.36, operating at the 87th percentile for the previous five years and the 100th percentile for the previous decade. For the same period, 18 micron averaged at a monthly value of $21.32 (99th percentile for the previous five years and 100th percentile for the previous decade), 21 micron averaged at $16.19 (also 99th percentile for the previous five years and 100th percentile for the previous decade), and 28 micron averaged at $8.12 (81st percentile and 100th percentile respectively). MARKET INTELLIGENCE: FREE VIA SMS In an initiative launched in March this year, AWI is sending wool prices and market intelligence direct to about 5,000 woolgrowers’ mobile phones. The woolgrowers receive the latest movements in the EMI in a simple text message (see left image), including a link to a full price report that provides more detail about price movements (see right image). If you would like to subscribe to the free SMS service, visit www.wool.com/sms where you will be asked to input your name and the mobile phone number to receive the SMS. You can unsubscribe from the service at any time by replying to the AWI SMS message. MORE INFORMATION www.wool.com/sms AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI FOR AUGUST 2017 – OCTOBER 2017 COMPARED WITH PAST 5 YEARS AUGUST 2012 – JULY 2017 THE DECADE AUGUST 2002 – JULY 2012 EMI $15.57 17um $22.59 18um $21.32 19um $18.49 20um $16.47 21um $16.19 22um $15.10 23um $14.09 24um $13.47 25um $12.04 26um $11.01 28um $8.12 30um $5.87 32um $4.13 MC $11.36 0%102030405060708090100 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 92 95 95 100 100 100 24 7 81 100 49 93 100 87 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 MARKET INTELLIGENCE 62 MARKET INTELLIGENCE