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Beyond the Bale : December 2014
54 MARKET INTELLIGENCE AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI COMPARISON The chart opposite shows percentile in Australian dollar terms using four-year AWEX monthly Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) and a comparison against the previous decade (November 2000-October 2010). From August-October 2014, the monthly EMI averaged at $10.26, tracking at the 21st percentile. The low percentile value (21st ) indicates that over the past four years, the monthly EMI recorded a price lower than $10.26 for only 21 per cent of the time. It also means within that period, the monthly EMI recorded a price higher than $10.26 for 79 per cent of the time. On the other hand, Merino Cardings (MC) averaged at $7.79, operating at the 70th percentile. For the same period, 18 micron averaged at a monthly value of $12.19 (21st percentile), 21 micron averaged at $11.28 (23rd percentile), and 28 micron averaged at $6.63 (72nd percentile). Although the EMI is tracking at the 21st percentile over the past four years, it is at the 93rd percentile when compared to the first decade this century. MARKET INTELLIGENCE HEALTHY RISE IN AVERAGE EMI IN THE PAST FOUR YEAR PERIOD This graph shows the rise in the Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) over the past 24 years since the collapse of the Reserve Price Scheme. The graph also shows the average EMI for successive four-year periods. In the 20 year period between October 1990 and October 2010, the average EMI rose 214 cents. In the following four year period (up to the present), the average EMI rose 239 cents (ie more than the preceding 20 year period). Even if the 2011 year – a particularly good year for prices due to extraordinary market circumstances – is excluded, the average EMI rose by a very healthy 186 cents. MORE INFORMATION Weekly price reports and other market intelligence reports from AWI are available from the AWI website at www.wool.com/marketintelligence EMI $10.26 17um $12.49 18um $12.19 19um $11.69 20um $11.35 21um $11.28 22um $11.16 23um $11.04 24um $10.13 25um $9.03 26um $8.02 28um $6.63 30um $6.43 32um $5.92 MC $7.79 0%102030405060708090100 21 19 21 19 22 23 26 31 43 53 45 72 85 91 70 93 32 71 77 95 96 96 97 93 94 89 93 99 99 100 Decade Nov 2000 - Oct 2010 Past 4 years Nov 2010 - Oct 2014 AVERAGE MONTHLY EMI FOR AUGUST-OCTOBER 2014 COMPARED WITH 1. FOUR YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND 2. THE DECADE 2000-2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 OCT90toOCT94 OCT94toOCT98 OCT98toOCT02 OCT02toOCT06 OCT06toOCT10 OCT10toOCT14 EMI (AUD) MAXIMUM MINIMUM AVERAGE